NFL performances don’t happen in a vacuum. Every player has 10 teammates alongside him on the field on any given down. One single failure along that chain can blow up an entire play. One massive success can turn disaster into glory.
This doesn’t mean all positions are created equally. Every snap begins in the hands of the quarterback, and with a greater emphasis on the passing game than ever before there’s no doubt the man behind center plays the most important role on the field.
That’s why teams spend massively to assemble the brightest possible star at the center of their solar systems. Today, we’re going to look at which of those suns shined brighter in 2021 and who dimmed compared to their 2020 seasons.
By cobbling together a handful of stats — both traditional counting stats and advanced metrics — we’re able to sort the 22 qualified starting quarterbacks who played at least 300 snaps in each of the last two seasons. That created a matrix whose raw data let us know who made strides in 2021 and who took a step backward when it came to running an offense.
Since this is a look into raw improvement, it doesn’t tell the whole story about a quarterback’s play. Aaron Rodgers backslid from his incredible 2020 but was still good enough in 2021 to repeat as NFL MVP because he started at such a great height. Conversely, Carson Wentz was decidedly below average last season but still produced massive gains in his one season as an Indianapolis Colt because he was just that hopeless in his final year as a Philadelphia Eagle.
Knowing that, let’s look at who improved the most last year compared to 2020 — and who left their teams wanting:
First, let’s talk about what these categories mean. These numbers come from the wonderful resource RBSDM.com and track the value each quarterback adds to a play. Here’s how each stat is defined:
EPA/play: Expected Points Added per play. This is a measurement of how well a team performs compared to how a typical NFL team would be expected to perform in the same situation. The 33rd Team has a great explainer here if you’d like more information on how it’s calculated.
CPOE: Completed Percentage Over Expected: A passer’s actual completion percentage compared to their Expected Completion Percentage.
Success rate: A play is considered successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of those yards on second down and 100% of them on third or fourth down.
These numbers are a comparison between each player’s 2020 number and their 2021. It’s not a look at overall ranks, as you’ll see — the only player they’re counting stats against is the previous year’s version of themselves.
A surprising name stood above the fray when it came to expected points added per play. Wentz benefitted from a strong offensive line and one of the league’s top rushing offenses en route to a rise up the leaderboards. He went from 22nd in EPA (dead last among qualifiers) all the way to … 16th. That’s like improving from an “F” to a “D-.”
Biggest improvement that actually mattered: Joe Burrow
This is less surprising. Burrow rose from 15th in adjusted EPA to second place behind reigning MVP Rodgers and brought the Bengals to the Super Bowl.
Keep an eye on: Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa still wasn’t the franchise quarterback Miami hoped he could be, but he was better in his second year as a pro, posting modest gains across the advanced stats spectrum. After a negative CPOE as a rookie he was able to record a top 10 number by completing 1.9 percent more of his passes than he’d been expected. Now he’s got Tyreek Hill in the lineup, a revamped offensive line, and a new head coach hoping to push him to the next step in his development.
Mayfield hurt his non-throwing shoulder in Week 2, struggled through the season, and eventually got replaced by a guy facing more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct. He’ll have the chance to redeem himself assuming he can beat out Sam Darnold for a starting role in Carolina. Darnold, somehow, showed minor improvement in 2021 thanks to his improved scrambling but was still mostly hopeless as a quarterback.
Biggest regression that could have an impact on 2022: Ryan Tannehill
The Tannehill hype train finally encountered a lasting uphill stretch after Derrick Henry got hurt and a lack of receiving depth limited the effectiveness of the Titans offense. He was one of the league’s most efficient players in 2020, per advanced stats, but fell to the middle of the pack last fall. Now he’ll have to get back on track as questions linger about Henry’s ability to reclaim his workhorse status and Tennessee breaks in a receiving corps led by newcomers at the top of the depth chart.
Keep an eye on: Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers was still the top advanced stats quarterback in the league last season, but he did fall off 2020’s incredible pace. Davante Adams is now a Raider and his projected top two wideouts are Allen Lazard and North Dakota State rookie Christian Watson. His regression could continue in 2022.
Advanced stats aren’t for everyone. Let’s dial up some more traditional measures to see how last year’s quarterbacks stack up. Here’s what each category means:
Passer rating: A formula based on pass attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdown passes and interceptions in order to create a comprehensive — albeit limited — view of a quarterback’s overall efficiency.
QBR: ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating. This takes the pieces of traditional passer ratings into account while adding elements that account for rushing, sacks, penalties and overall touchdowns and turnovers.
Adj. net yards/attempt: Adjusted yards gained per pass attempt, which factors in both touchdowns and interceptions to create a more comprehensive view of a passer’s impact.
Yards/game: Passing yards per game.
Again, we’re only measuring these players against their 2020 levels of play. In terms of passer rating and QBR, the median starting quarterback actually got worse in 2021 compared to the previous year’s empty stadium season.
OK. Good luck, Commanders. Sorry that these stats don’t count “games lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars with a playoff berth on the line.”
Biggest improvement that actually mattered: Joe Burrow
Burrow threw fewer times per game and racked up more passing yards every Sunday in the process. He deserves credit for his development. The Bengals deserve credit for surrounding him with players like Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.
Keep an eye on: Kyler Murray
Murray was playing the best football of his career before the Cardinals’ annual late-season collapse under Kliff Kingsbury. He’ll have to sustain this growth without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season as he sits out a PED suspension. Newly-acquired Marquise “Hollywood” Brown will serve as Murray’s new WR1 through that stretch.
Adding Julio Jones was supposed to backfill the lost production when Corey Davis signed with the Jets before the 2021 season. Instead, Jones missed a good chunk of the season, the rest of the roster struggled, and the Titans relied heavily on their defense to take down the AFC’s top playoff seed. It could be more of the same in 2022 if offseason additions Treylon Burks and Robert Woods can’t adjust quickly to their new roles.
Biggest regression that could have an impact on 2022: Lamar Jackson
Jackson had a forgettable 2021 thanks to injury, but when he was on the field he threw the ball more often and less efficiently than at any point since his 2018 rookie debut. Now his leading wideout from last fall is a Cardinal and the depth chart behind Rashod Bateman is tissue paper thin. Getting a decimated running back corps back from injury will help, but Jackson will still need to shake off last year’s subpar showing through the air.
Keep an eye on: Derek Carr
Like Jackson, Carr was asked to throw more and was less efficient in the process. But that was with Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller fighting through injury and a depth chart where Zay Jones was WR2. Davante Adams is now part of the roster; he, Waller, and Hunter Renfrow could be the bridge that connects Carr back to the MVP conversation.
Pro Football Reference’s advanced stats keep track of each quarterback’s throws and whether or not they wound up where they were supposed to be. Bad throw rate excludes spikes and throwaways to calculate the average number of poor throws each quarterback had in a given year. On target rate covers the catchable passes in that same cohort.
No surprises here. Burrow wasn’t just helped by his wideouts; he was significantly more accurate downfield than he was as a rookie.
Another improvement that actually mattered: Justin Herbert
Herbert’s growth couldn’t will the Chargers to a playoff spot, but it’s clear he was better in 2021 despite a declining completion rate and passer rating. The third-year quarterback is primed to cement his rise to stardom this fall.
Keep an eye on: Matt Ryan
Ryan’s accuracy numbers rose in 2021, but that was in large part due to a steady diet of shorter passes. His average target depth fell from 8.5 yards downfield in 2020 to just 7.1 last fall. The Colts offered Wentz similarly easy, close-to-home throws last season to help spur his improvement. Will they do the same with their newest veteran reclamation project? Or will Ryan get back to throwing deep like he had in previous seasons as a Falcon?
Cousins’s average pass distance rose from 8.0 yards to 8.2 last season, but his average completion air yards fell from 6.7 to 6.5. This was the result of decreased accuracy, though he remained roughly average when it came to both on-target and bad throw rates. He’ll adapt a new offense under incoming head coach Kevin O’Connell in 2022, who spent the prior season coaxing big efficiency gains from Matthew Stafford in LA despite a slight downturn in overall accuracy for the veteran QB.
Biggest regression that could have an impact on 2022: Josh Allen
Allen absolutely maintained the momentum of his breakthrough 2020 season and was one awful overtime rule from bringing the Bills to the AFC title game. He was 2021’s most effective scrambler from the pocket and led the NFL with more than 6.2 yards per carry. That said, his passing efficiency did take a step backward as his interception and bad throw rates rose.
Keep an eye on: Russell Wilson
Wilson will turn 34 years old this season, which would have raised eyebrows a couple decades ago but no longer seems especially notable in a league where Rodgers won MVPs at age 37 AND 38 and Tom Brady can play until the heat death of the universe. Wilson’s rising bad throw rate could be traced to his 4.9 deep throws per game — second-highest number of his career — and an average target depth of 9.9 yards, up from 8.6 the year prior. If the Broncos have him throwing downfield as often, it’s possible his accuracy numbers may not rebound in Denver.
Sign up for the For The Win newsletter to get our top stories in your inbox every morning
We asked the man who makes the Madden 23 ratings to explain some of the most stunning ratings.
Guys like Samuel had a case for MVP last year! Are we serious?
Teams can finally wear alternate helmets in 2022.
© Copyright For The Win 2022
Powered by WordPress.com VIP
Please enter an email address.
Please check your email for a confirmation.