Projecting Broncos’ leading receiver, LB questions, more: Mailbag, Part 2 - The Athletic

2022-07-01 23:32:50 By : Mr. Steven Han

We had so many good questions from subscribers in our summer mailbag that we had to split it into two parts.

You can read Part 1 here. And without any preheating, let’s begin cooking with Part 2.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.

Who do you think will lead the team in receptions? — Darren C.

Jerry Jeudy. Even after a rookie season in which he struggled with drops and a faulty connection with quarterback Drew Lock and a second season in which he missed seven games due to an ankle injury, Jeudy’s 1.72 yards per route run since 2020 is the highest mark among Denver’s wide receivers, according to TruMedia. The Broncos are running an offense that will better utilize him in space and allow him to be the target of deep attempts from Russell Wilson, who is by far the most talented quarterback Jeudy, the No. 15 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft out of Alabama, has played with in his career. Jeudy must remain healthy and avoid some of the mental lapses that dotted his first two seasons, but there’s little standing in the way of him becoming a dynamic, top-flight receiver in this offense.

What’s the over/under on the number of wins for the Broncos when they reach their bye in Week 9? I think we win seven or eight. — Stephen K.

And here I thought I was being optimistic when I predicted the Broncos will finish 11-6 in 2022. Stephen K. here has Denver possibly undefeated after dispatching the Jaguars in London on Oct. 30. I dig the positive outlook.

But if I were setting a line for a record after eight games, I’d go with 5.5 and would probably lean, ever so slightly, toward the over. A mark of 6-2 heading into the bye would set up the Broncos nicely for a second half of the schedule that is far more brutal than the first. The toughest games among the first eight are a Week 3 home matchup with the 49ers and a Week 6 trip to the Chargers, though home games against the Raiders (Week 4) and Colts (Week 5, short rest) will be no picnic. If Denver falls to 5-3 during this stretch, it’d need to go 5-4 in the final nine to reach the 10-win mark that will probably be the bare minimum for playoff entry. Go 6-2 and there is a lot more cushion. It all makes the prime-time game Sept. 25 against San Francisco a huge early pivot point in the season.

I’ve heard conflicting reports about Baron Browning’s expected usage. Given the lack of depth at the inside linebacker position (even if the team is high on Jonas Griffith), do you foresee him playing a hybrid role or strictly lining up at outside linebacker? — Kevin S.

This is a great question because the depth of talent at the linebacker positions on this roster certainly tilts to the outside spots. The Broncos are in good shape if Josey Jewell and Jonas Griffith are available every week on the inside. With Alex Singleton sliding into that third ILB role, that would be a more than serviceable trio. But if injuries hit that position to any degree near what Denver went through at the spot last season, the Broncos could be in trouble. Could they move Browning back to the position he played as a rookie in that scenario? That move would be on the table. But every indication I’ve been able to gather suggests the Broncos believe Browning has real potential as a pass rusher in this league and they want to give him a shot to cement himself there in 2022.

Another element to consider: If Browning takes another leap at outside ‘backer during training camp, the Broncos might view a trade at outside linebacker as an avenue for acquiring some coveted 2023 draft capital. That would make the prospect of moving him back to the inside a trickier proposition.

At which position groups are the Broncos thinnest on offense and defense? — Tim B.

On defense, it is the defensive line, particularly the end spots. Who is starting in Denver’s base defense opposite Dre’Mont Jones? DeShawn Williams? Rookie Eyioma Uwazurike? McTelvin Agim? The Broncos have a good foundation in Dre’Mont Jones and new nose tackle D.J. Jones, who is backed up by the stout-when-healthy Mike Purcell. But the surrounding cast is relatively unproven, and this feels like a group that could be in some trouble if it experienced a significant injury or two.

On offense, it’s tackle. Billy Turner knows this offense well, having played in it the past three seasons under Nathaniel Hackett in Green Bay, but he missed the entire offseason program while rehabbing a leg injury. It’s fair to wonder how ready he’ll be in camp to battle Calvin Anderson, who dealt with injury issues of his own last season and has only five career starts to his credit. It is important to note that Tom Compton, another free-agent signing who spent the past two seasons in San Francisco, also has ample experience playing right tackle, so we’re not talking about a right tackle situation where the Broncos have no answers. Still, the development of the tackle spot opposite Garett Bolles — and that of the offensive line more generally — will be a key subplot in training camp.

How does this team best utilize KJ Hamler? — Tom M.

In short, take advantage of his speed. Even measured against the jet-quick human beings who make a living in the NFL, Hamler is exceptionally fast. This is a guy who clocked sub-4.3-second times in the 40-yard dash leading up to the 2020 draft. Before Hamler suffered a gruesome Week 4 injury in 2021, he had consistently illustrated how his ability to take the top off the defense could open up opportunities for his fellow receivers (see: Jeudy, Jerry; Week 1). Of course, Wilson will be far more inclined than Teddy Bridgewater to treat Hamler as something more than a go-long decoy. The veteran quarterback will take those deep shots, and if Hamler isn’t hampered too noticeably coming off the knee and hip surgeries he underwent last fall, he could become one of the league’s most explosive deep threats in short order.

Is there any chance the team could look to re-sign inside linebacker Alexander Johnson on a cheap, one-year deal? He is still a free agent, and it seems like a low-risk option that could provide some significant benefits in a potential starting ILB. — Joshua D. 

I am a little bit surprised Johnson is still on the market. It was just two seasons ago that he led the Broncos with 124 tackles. Last season, he had a career-best two sacks in the six games he played before suffering a season-ending pectoral injury, and the Broncos missed his physicality, particularly against the run, once he was out of the lineup.

Johnson is also on the wrong side of 30, is coming off the aforementioned injury and has noted deficiencies in pass coverage. We’ve seen how quickly linebackers with those caveats can get pushed out of the league. Just look at Todd Davis, who was among the NFL’s leading tacklers in 2019, was cut by Denver after suffering a training camp injury before the following season and played in only six more career games. If the Broncos don’t view Johnson as a three-down linebacker in the kind of defense they want to play under Ejiro Evero, an arrangement probably doesn’t make sense for either side. If Denver viewed Johnson as a starter, it probably would have already moved to sign him.

At this stage in his career, Johnson profiles as a player who will probably be monitoring potential injuries around camp to see if a spot opens up that would provide him a chance to get on the field.

Will the Broncos’ version of the West Coast offense be like the (Mike and Kyle) Shanahan version, where the run sets up the pass? Or will it be like Sean McVay’s scheme, where the run supplements the pass? Hoping it’s the former. Also, will Russell Wilson be OK with a commitment to establishing the run, or does he just want to cook and prove Pete Carroll wrong? — Stuart F. 

The Cook Index was created to measure how frequently teams pass on early downs in the first 28 minutes of a game — before the score and other factors begin heavily influencing a team’s game plan. In other words, are teams “run first” or “pass first” when it comes to establishing an offensive identity? The more often a team is throwing in those situations, the more a team is “cooking,” as it relates to the meme-based narrative that followed Wilson’s final three seasons in Seattle. To Stuart’s point, only three teams in the NFL ran more often in those situations than the 49ers. Meanwhile, during Hackett’s past three seasons as the offensive coordinator in Green Bay, the Packers threw in those early-down situations at the seventh-highest rate in the league, according to TruMedia. During that same stretch, the Seahawks ranked just 22nd in that pass frequency.

You’ll probably see an offense that splits that difference. Hackett is going to allow Wilson to open things up a little earlier in series and games than he was able to in Seattle, but he also knows Wilson’s effectiveness moving outside the pocket becomes compromised when he doesn’t have a strong run game to keep the defense honest. And the running game for the Broncos should be a strength with two capable running backs in Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III and an offensive line that appears to be better suited to the outside-zone scheme Hackett and his staff are implementing.

So, in short, you’ll likely see an offense with a balance that lands somewhere in the middle of the Shanahan-McVay spectrum. As for whether Wilson will be OK with something short of being the league’s most frequent early-down passer? It will be Hackett’s job to convince him.

(Top photo of Jerry Jeudy: Ron Chenoy / USA Today)